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RECORD 1
TITLE
  Propagation analysis and prediction of the COVID-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Li L.;  Yang Z.;  Dang Z.;  Meng C.;  Huang J.;  Meng H.;  Wang D.;  Chen G.;  Zhang J.;  Peng H.;  Shao Y.
SOURCE
  Infectious Disease Modelling (2020) 5 (282-292). Date of Publication: 1 Jan 2020
ABSTRACT
  Based on the official data modeling, this paper studies the transmission process of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The error between the model and the official data curve is quite small. At the same time, it realized forward prediction and backward inference of the epidemic situation, and the relevant analysis help relevant countries to make decisions.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.002

RECORD 2
TITLE
  Why is it difficult to accurately predict the COVID-19 epidemic?
AUTHOR NAMES
  Roda W.C.;  Varughese M.B.;  Han D.;  Li M.Y.
SOURCE
  Infectious Disease Modelling (2020) 5 (271-281). Date of Publication: 1 Jan 2020
ABSTRACT
  Since the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan City in December of 2019, numerous model predictions on the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan and other parts of China have been reported. These model predictions have shown a wide range of variations. In our study, we demonstrate that nonidentifiability in model calibrations using the confirmed-case data is the main reason for such wide variations. Using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) for model selection, we show that an SIR model performs much better than an SEIR model in representing the information contained in the confirmed-case data. This indicates that predictions using more complex models may not be more reliable compared to using a simpler model. We present our model predictions for the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan after the lockdown and quarantine of the city on January 23, 2020. We also report our results of modeling the impacts of the strict quarantine measures undertaken in the city after February 7 on the time course of the epidemic, and modeling the potential of a second outbreak after the return-to-work in the city.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.03.001

RECORD 3
TITLE
  Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in complex humanitarian crises
AUTHOR NAMES
  Poole D.N.;  Escudero D.J.;  Gostin L.O.;  Leblang D.;  Talbot E.A.
SOURCE
  International Journal for Equity in Health (2020) 19:1 Article Number: 41. Date of Publication: 21 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12939-020-01162-y

RECORD 4
TITLE
  Prisons and custodial settings are part of a comprehensive response to COVID-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Kinner S.A.;  Young J.T.;  Snow K.;  Southalan L.;  Lopez-Acuña D.;  Ferreira-Borges C.;  O’Moore É.
SOURCE
  The Lancet Public Health (2020) 5:4 (e188-e189). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30058-X

RECORD 5
TITLE
  Audio interview: Preparing for the spread of covid-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Rubin E.J.;  Baden L.R.;  Morrissey S.
SOURCE
  New England Journal of Medicine (2020) 382:9 (E18). Date of Publication: 27 Feb 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMe2003319

RECORD 6
TITLE
  Sars-cov-2 and coronavirus disease 2019: What we know so far
AUTHOR NAMES
  Rabi F.A.;  Al Zoubi M.S.;  Al-Nasser A.D.;  Kasasbeh G.A.;  Salameh D.M.
SOURCE
  Pathogens (2020) 9:3 Article Number: 231. Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  In December 2019, a cluster of fatal pneumonia cases presented in Wuhan, China. They were caused by a previously unknown coronavirus. All patients had been associated with the Wuhan Wholefood market, where seafood and live animals are sold. The virus spread rapidly and public health authorities in China initiated a containment effort. However, by that time, travelers had carried the virus to many countries, sparking memories of the previous coronavirus epidemics, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and causing widespread media attention and panic. Based on clinical criteria and available serological and molecular information, the new disease was called coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), and the novel coronavirus was called SARS Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), emphasizing its close relationship to the 2002 SARS virus (SARS-CoV). The scientific community raced to uncover the origin of the virus, understand the pathogenesis of the disease, develop treatment options, define the risk factors, and work on vaccine development. Here we present a summary of current knowledge regarding the novel coronavirus and the disease it causes.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens9030231

RECORD 7
TITLE
  Novel 2019 coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): An updated overview for emergency clinicians
AUTHOR NAMES
  Giwa A.L.;  Desai A.;  Duca A.
SOURCE
  Emergency medicine practice (2020) 22:5 (1-28). Date of Publication: 1 May 2020
ABSTRACT
  The novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has quickly become a worldwide threat to health, travel, and commerce. This overview analyzes the best information from the early research, including epidemiologic and demographic features from SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV viruses; lessons learned from the experience of an emergency physician in Northern Italy, where the outbreak has devastated the healthcare system; evidence on transmission and prevention through safe use of PPE; evidence and advice on SARS-CoV-2 testing and co-infection; management options; airway management options; steps for rapid sequence intubation in the ED and managing disaster ventilation; and information on managing pediatric and pregnant patients.

RECORD 8
TITLE
  Turbulent Gas Clouds and Respiratory Pathogen Emissions: Potential Implications for Reducing Transmission of COVID-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Bourouiba L.
SOURCE
  JAMA – Journal of the American Medical Association (2020) (E1-E2). Date of Publication: 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.4756

RECORD 9
TITLE
  Post-discharge surveillance and positive virus detection in two medical staff recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), China, January to February 2020
AUTHOR NAMES
  Xing Y.;  Mo P.;  Xiao Y.;  Zhao O.;  Zhang Y.;  Wang F.
SOURCE
  Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin (2020) 25:10. Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  Since December 2019, 62 medical staff of Zhongnan Hospital in Wuhan, China have been hospitalised with coronavirus disease 2019. During the post-discharge surveillance after clinical recovery, swabs were positive in two asymptomatic cases (3.23%). Case 1 had presented typical clinical and radiological manifestations on admission, while manifestation in Case 2 was very mild. In conclusion, a small proportion of recovered patients may test positive after discharge, and post-discharge surveillance and isolation need to be strengthened.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000191

RECORD 10
TITLE
  Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: A scoping review
AUTHOR NAMES
  Adhikari S.P.;  Meng S.;  Wu Y.-J.;  Mao Y.-P.;  Ye R.-X.;  Wang Q.-Z.;  Sun C.;  Sylvia S.;  Rozelle S.;  Raat H.;  Zhou H.
SOURCE
  Infectious Diseases of Poverty (2020) 9:1 Article Number: 29. Date of Publication: 17 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  Background: The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China beginning in December 2019. As of 31 January 2020, this epidemic had spread to 19 countries with 11 791 confirmed cases, including 213 deaths. The World Health Organization has declared it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Methods: A scoping review was conducted following the methodological framework suggested by Arksey and O’Malley. In this scoping review, 65 research articles published before 31 January 2020 were analyzed and discussed to better understand the epidemiology, causes, clinical diagnosis, prevention and control of this virus. The research domains, dates of publication, journal language, authors’ affiliations, and methodological characteristics were included in the analysis. All the findings and statements in this review regarding the outbreak are based on published information as listed in the references. Results: Most of the publications were written using the English language (89.2%). The largest proportion of published articles were related to causes (38.5%) and a majority (67.7%) were published by Chinese scholars. Research articles initially focused on causes, but over time there was an increase of the articles related to prevention and control. Studies thus far have shown that the virus’ origination is in connection to a seafood market in Wuhan, but specific animal associations have not been confirmed. Reported symptoms include fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, headache, diarrhea, hemoptysis, and dyspnea. Preventive measures such as masks, hand hygiene practices, avoidance of public contact, case detection, contact tracing, and quarantines have been discussed as ways to reduce transmission. To date, no specific antiviral treatment has proven effective; hence, infected people primarily rely on symptomatic treatment and supportive care. Conclusions: There has been a rapid surge in research in response to the outbreak of COVID-19. During this early period, published research primarily explored the epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, as well as prevention and control of the novel coronavirus. Although these studies are relevant to control the current public emergency, more high-quality research is needed to provide valid and reliable ways to manage this kind of public health emergency in both the short- and long-term.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s40249-020-00646-x

RECORD 11
TITLE
  Prudent public health intervention strategies to control the coronavirus disease 2019 transmission in India: A mathematical model-based approach
AUTHOR NAMES
  Mandal S.;  Bhatnagar T.;  Arinaminpathy N.;  Agarwal A.;  Chowdhury A.;  Murhekar M.;  Gangakhedkar R.R.;  Sarkar S.
SOURCE
  The Indian journal of medical research (2020). Date of Publication: 23 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  Background & objectives: :Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raised urgent questions about containment and mitigation, particularly in countries where the virus has not yet established human-to-human transmission. The objectives of this study were to find out if it was possible to prevent, or delay, the local outbreaks of COVID-19 through restrictions on travel from abroad and if the virus has already established in-country transmission, to what extent would its impact be mitigated through quarantine of symptomatic patients?” Methods: :These questions were addressed in the context of India, using simple mathematical models of infectious disease transmission. While there remained important uncertainties in the natural history of COVID-19, using hypothetical epidemic curves, some key findings were illustrated that appeared insensitive to model assumptions, as well as highlighting critical data gaps. Results: :It was assumed that symptomatic quarantine would identify and quarantine 50 per cent of symptomatic individuals within three days of developing symptoms. In an optimistic scenario of the basic reproduction number (R00) being 1.5, and asymptomatic infections lacking any infectiousness, such measures would reduce the cumulative incidence by 62 per cent. In the pessimistic scenario of R0=4, and asymptomatic infections being half as infectious as symptomatic, this projected impact falls to two per cent. Interpretation & conclusions: :Port-of-entry-based entry screening of travellers with suggestive clinical features and from COVID-19-affected countries, would achieve modest delays in the introduction of the virus into the community. Acting alone, however, such measures would be insufficient to delay the outbreak by weeks or longer. Once the virus establishes transmission within the community, quarantine of symptomatics may have a meaningful impact on disease burden. Model projections are subject to substantial uncertainty and can be further refined as more is understood about the natural history of infection of this novel virus. As a public health measure, health system and community preparedness would be critical to control any impending spread of COVID-19 in the country.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.4103/ijmr.IJMR_504_20

RECORD 12
TITLE
  Travellers give wings to novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
AUTHOR NAMES
  Wilson M.E.;  Chen L.H.
SOURCE
  Journal of travel medicine (2020) 27:2. Date of Publication: 13 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa015

RECORD 13
TITLE
  The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus
AUTHOR NAMES
  Liu Y.;  Gayle A.A.;  Wilder-Smith A.;  Rocklöv J.
SOURCE
  Journal of travel medicine (2020) 27:2. Date of Publication: 13 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa021

RECORD 14
TITLE
  Isolation, quarantine, social distancing and community containment: pivotal role for old-style public health measures in the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak
AUTHOR NAMES
  Wilder-Smith A.;  Freedman D.O.
SOURCE
  Journal of travel medicine (2020) 27:2. Date of Publication: 13 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa020

RECORD 15
TITLE
  Quantifying the association between domestic travel and the exportation of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases from Wuhan, China in 2020: a correlational analysis
AUTHOR NAMES
  Zhao S.;  Zhuang Z.;  Cao P.;  Ran J.;  Gao D.;  Lou Y.;  Yang L.;  Cai Y.;  Wang W.;  He D.;  Wang M.H.
SOURCE
  Journal of travel medicine (2020) 27:2. Date of Publication: 13 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taaa022

RECORD 16
TITLE
  Transmission routes of 2019-nCoV and controls in dental practice
AUTHOR NAMES
  Peng X.;  Xu X.;  Li Y.;  Cheng L.;  Zhou X.;  Ren B.
SOURCE
  International journal of oral science (2020) 12:1 (9). Date of Publication: 3 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  A novel β-coronavirus (2019-nCoV) caused severe and even fetal pneumonia explored in a seafood market of Wuhan city, Hubei province, China, and rapidly spread to other provinces of China and other countries. The 2019-nCoV was different from SARS-CoV, but shared the same host receptor the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). The natural host of 2019-nCoV may be the bat Rhinolophus affinis as 2019-nCoV showed 96.2% of whole-genome identity to BatCoV RaTG13. The person-to-person transmission routes of 2019-nCoV included direct transmission, such as cough, sneeze, droplet inhalation transmission, and contact transmission, such as the contact with oral, nasal, and eye mucous membranes. 2019-nCoV can also be transmitted through the saliva, and the fetal-oral routes may also be a potential person-to-person transmission route. The participants in dental practice expose to tremendous risk of 2019-nCoV infection due to the face-to-face communication and the exposure to saliva, blood, and other body fluids, and the handling of sharp instruments. Dental professionals play great roles in preventing the transmission of 2019-nCoV. Here we recommend the infection control measures during dental practice to block the person-to-person transmission routes in dental clinics and hospitals.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41368-020-0075-9

RECORD 17
TITLE
  Public health round-up
SOURCE
  Bulletin of the World Health Organization (2020) 98:3 (155-156). Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.010320

RECORD 18
TITLE
  What further should be done to control COVID-19 outbreaks in addition to cases isolation and contact tracing measures?
AUTHOR NAMES
  He Z.
SOURCE
  BMC Medicine (2020) 18:1 Article Number: 80. Date of Publication: 13 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01551-8

RECORD 19
TITLE
  How to train the health personnel for protecting themselves from novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection during their patient or suspected case care
AUTHOR NAMES
  Huh S.
SOURCE
  Journal of educational evaluation for health professions (2020) 17 (10). Date of Publication: 1 Jan 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3352/jeehp.2020.17.10

RECORD 20
TITLE
  The outbreak of COVID-19: An overview
AUTHOR NAMES
  Wu Y.-C.;  Chen C.-S.;  Chan Y.-J.
SOURCE
  Journal of the Chinese Medical Association : JCMA (2020) 83:3 (217-220). Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  In late December 2019, a previous unidentified coronavirus, currently named as the 2019 novel coronavirus#, emerged from Wuhan, China, and resulted in a formidable outbreak in many cities in China and expanded globally, including Thailand, Republic of Korea, Japan, United States, Philippines, Viet Nam, and our country (as of 2/6/2020 at least 25 countries). The disease is officially named as Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19, by WHO on February 11, 2020). It is also named as Severe Pneumonia with Novel Pathogens on January 15, 2019 by the Taiwan CDC, the Ministry of Health and is a notifiable communicable disease of the fifth category. COVID-19 is a potential zoonotic disease with low to moderate (estimated 2%-5%) mortality rate. Person-to-person transmission may occur through droplet or contact transmission and if there is a lack of stringent infection control or if no proper personal protective equipment available, it may jeopardize the first-line healthcare workers. Currently, there is no definite treatment for COVID-19 although some drugs are under investigation. To promptly identify patients and prevent further spreading, physicians should be aware of the travel or contact history of the patient with compatible symptoms.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/JCMA.0000000000000270

RECORD 21
TITLE
  Can China’s COVID-19 strategy work elsewhere?
AUTHOR NAMES
  Kupferschmidt K.;  Cohen J.
SOURCE
  Science (2020) 367:6482 (1061-1062). Date of Publication: 6 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.367.6482.1062

RECORD 22
TITLE
  Similarity in Case Fatality Rates (CFR) of COVID-19/SARS-COV-2 in Italy and China
AUTHOR NAMES
  Porcheddu R.;  Serra C.;  Kelvin D.;  Kelvin N.;  Rubino S.
SOURCE
  Journal of Infection in Developing Countries (2020) 14:2 (125-128). Date of Publication: 2020
ABSTRACT
  As of 28 February 2020, Italy had 888 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with most cases in Northern Italy in the Lombardia and Veneto regions. Travel-related cases were the main source of COVID-19 cases during the early stages of the current epidemic in Italy. The month of February, however, has been dominated by two large clusters of outbreaks in Northern Italy, south of Milan, with mainly local transmission the source of infections. Contact tracing has failed to identify patient zero in one of the outbreaks. As of 28 February 2020, twenty-one cases of COVID-19 have died. Comparison between case fatality rates in China and Italy are identical at 2.3. Additionally, deaths are similar in both countries with fatalities in mostly the elderly with known comorbidities. It will be important to develop point-of-care devices to aid clinicians in stratifying elderly patients as early as possible to determine the potential level of care they will require to improve their chances of survival from COVID-19 disease.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3855/jidc.12600

RECORD 23
TITLE
  Prediction of the epidemic peak of coronavirus disease in Japan, 2020
AUTHOR NAMES
  Kuniya T.
SOURCE
  Journal of Clinical Medicine (2020) 9:3 Article Number: 789. Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Japan was reported on 15 January 2020 and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. The purpose of this study is to give a prediction of the epidemic peak for COVID-19 in Japan by using the real-time data from 15 January to 29 February 2020. Taking into account the uncertainty due to the incomplete identification of infective population, we apply the well-known SEIR compartmental model for the prediction. By using a least-square-based method with Poisson noise, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Japan is R0 = 2.6 (95%CI, 2.4–2.8) and the epidemic peak could possibly reach the early-middle summer. In addition, we obtain the following epidemiological insights: (1) the essential epidemic size is less likely to be affected by the rate of identification of the actual infective population; (2) the intervention has a positive effect on the delay of the epidemic peak; (3) intervention over a relatively long period is needed to effectively reduce the final epidemic size.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030789

RECORD 24
TITLE
  Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
AUTHOR NAMES
  Hellewell J.;  Abbott S.;  Gimma A.;  Bosse N.I.;  Jarvis C.I.;  Russell T.W.;  Munday J.D.;  Kucharski A.J.;  Edmunds W.J.;  Sun F.;  Flasche S.;  Quilty B.J.;  Davies N.;  Liu Y.;  Clifford S.;  Klepac P.;  Jit M.;  Diamond C.;  Gibbs H.;  van Zandvoort K.;  Funk S.;  Eggo R.M.
SOURCE
  The Lancet Global Health (2020) 8:4 (e488-e496). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
ABSTRACT
  Background: Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19. Methods: We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (R0), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort. Findings: Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset. Interpretation: In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund, and Health Data Research UK.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30074-7

RECORD 25
TITLE
  Deciphering the power of isolation in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks
AUTHOR NAMES
  Niud Y.;  Xu F.
SOURCE
  The Lancet Global Health (2020) 8:4 (e452-e453). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30085-1

RECORD 26
TITLE
  COVID-19: delay, mitigate, and communicate
AUTHOR NAMES
  The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
SOURCE
  The Lancet Respiratory Medicine (2020) 8:4 (321). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30128-4

RECORD 27
TITLE
  Diabetes and COVID-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Bloomgarden Z.T.
SOURCE
  Journal of Diabetes (2020) 12:4 (347-348). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1753-0407.13027

RECORD 28
TITLE
  From SARS to COVID-19: A previously unknown SARS- related coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) of pandemic potential infecting humans – Call for a One Health approach
AUTHOR NAMES
  El Zowalaty M.E.;  Järhult J.D.
SOURCE
  One Health (2020) 9 Article Number: 100124. Date of Publication: 1 Jun 2020
ABSTRACT
  Human coronaviruses continue to pose a threat to human health. The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in December 2019 which causes coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), an acute respiratory disease marked the third introduction of a highly pathogenic coronavirus into the human population in the twenty-first century. This recent emergence of a previously unknown coronavirus in China leads to huge impacts on humans globally. Covid-19 is a challenge to global public health. Here, we discuss the COVID-19 outbreak in a one health context, highlighting the need for the implementation of one health measures and practices to improve human health and reduce the emergence of pandemic viruses.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100124

RECORD 29
TITLE
  The response of Milan’s Emergency Medical System to the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy
AUTHOR NAMES
  Spina S.;  Marrazzo F.;  Migliari M.;  Stucchi R.;  Sforza A.;  Fumagalli R.
SOURCE
  The Lancet (2020) 395:10227 (e49-e50). Date of Publication: 14 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30493-1

RECORD 30
TITLE
  An outbreak of COVID-19 caused by a new coronavirus: what we know so far
AUTHOR NAMES
  Cheng A.C.;  Williamson D.A.
SOURCE
  Medical Journal of Australia (2020). Date of Publication: 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.5694/mja2.50530

RECORD 31
TITLE
  A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
AUTHOR NAMES
  Lin Q.;  Zhao S.;  Gao D.;  Lou Y.;  Yang S.;  Musa S.S.;  Wang M.H.;  Cai Y.;  Wang W.;  Yang L.;  He D.
SOURCE
  International Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020) 93 (211-216). Date of Publication: 1 Apr 2020
ABSTRACT
  The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058

RECORD 32
TITLE
  The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak
AUTHOR NAMES
  Chinazzi M.;  Davis J.T.;  Ajelli M.;  Gioannini C.;  Litvinova M.;  Merler S.;  Pastore Y Piontti A.;  Mu K.;  Rossi L.;  Sun K.;  Viboud C.;  Xiong X.;  Yu H.;  Halloran M.E.;  Longini I.M.;  Vespignani A.
SOURCE
  Science (New York, N.Y.) (2020). Date of Publication: 6 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9757

RECORD 33
TITLE
  Backcalculating the incidence of infection with covid-19 on the diamond princess
AUTHOR NAMES
  Nishiura H.
SOURCE
  Journal of Clinical Medicine (2020) 9:3 Article Number: 657. Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
ABSTRACT
  To understand the time-dependent risk of infection on a cruise ship, the Diamond Princess, I estimated the incidence of infection with novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The epidemic curve of a total of 199 confirmed cases was drawn, classifying individuals into passengers with and without close contact and crew members. A backcalculation method was employed to estimate the incidence of infection. The peak time of infection was seen for the time period from 2 to 4 February 2020, and the incidence has abruptly declined afterwards. The estimated number of new infections among passengers without close contact was very small from 5 February on which a movement restriction policy was imposed. Without the intervention from 5 February, it was predicted that the cumulative incidence with and without close contact would have been as large as 1373 (95% CI: 570, 2176) and 766 (95% CI: 587, 946) cases, respectively, while these were kept to be 102 and 47 cases, respectively. Based on an analysis of illness onset data on board, the risk of infection among passengers without close contact was considered to be very limited. Movement restriction greatly reduced the number of infections from 5 February onwards.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9030657

RECORD 34
TITLE
  Transmission potential of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) onboard the diamond Princess Cruises Ship, 2020
AUTHOR NAMES
  Mizumoto K.;  Chowell G.
SOURCE
  Infectious Disease Modelling (2020) 5 (264-270). Date of Publication: 1 Jan 2020
ABSTRACT
  An outbreak of COVID-19 developed aboard the Princess Cruises Ship during January–February 2020. Using mathematical modeling and time-series incidence data describing the trajectory of the outbreak among passengers and crew members, we characterize how the transmission potential varied over the course of the outbreak. Our estimate of the mean reproduction number in the confined setting reached values as high as ~11, which is higher than mean estimates reported from community-level transmission dynamics in China and Singapore (approximate range: 1.1–7). Our findings suggest that Rt decreased substantially compared to values during the early phase after the Japanese government implemented an enhanced quarantine control. Most recent estimates of Rt reached values largely below the epidemic threshold, indicating that a secondary outbreak of the novel coronavirus was unlikely to occur aboard the Diamond Princess Ship.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.02.003

RECORD 35
TITLE
  Q&A: The novel coronavirus outbreak causing COVID-19
AUTHOR NAMES
  Fisher D.;  Heymann D.
SOURCE
  BMC Medicine (2020) 18:1 Article Number: 57. Date of Publication: 28 Feb 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12916-020-01533-w

RECORD 36
TITLE
  Data sharing for novel coronavirus (COVID-19)
AUTHOR NAMES
  Moorthy V.;  Restrepo A.M.H.;  Preziosi M.-P.;  Swaminathan S.
SOURCE
  Bulletin of the World Health Organization (2020) 98:3 (150). Date of Publication: 1 Mar 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.2471/BLT.20.251561

RECORD 37
TITLE
  Wuhan novel coronavirus (COVID-19): why global control is challenging?
AUTHOR NAMES
  Lee A.
SOURCE
  Public Health (2020) 179 (A1-A2). Date of Publication: 1 Feb 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2020.02.001

RECORD 38
TITLE
  COVID-19: fighting panic with information
AUTHOR NAMES
  The Lancet
SOURCE
  The Lancet (2020) 395:10224 (537). Date of Publication: 22 Feb 2020
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30379-2

RECORD 39
TITLE
  Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China: February 13–23, 2020
AUTHOR NAMES
  Roosa K.;  Lee Y.;  Luo R.;  Kirpich A.;  Rothenberg R.;  Hyman J.M.;  Yan P.;  Chowell G.
SOURCE
  Journal of Clinical Medicine (2020) 9:2 Article Number: 596. Date of Publication: 1 Feb 2020
ABSTRACT
  The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread within and outside of China, despite several social distancing measures implemented by the Chinese government. Limited epidemiological data are available, and recent changes in case definition and reporting further complicate our understanding of the impact of the epidemic, particularly in the epidemic’s epicenter. Here we use previously validated phenomenological models to generate short-term forecasts of cumulative reported cases in Guangdong and Zhejiang, China. Using daily reported cumulative case data up until 13 February 2020 from the National Health Commission of China, we report 5-and 10-day ahead forecasts of cumulative case reports. Specifically, we generate forecasts using a generalized logistic growth model, the Richards growth model, and a sub-epidemic wave model, which have each been previously used to forecast outbreaks due to different infectious diseases. Forecasts from each of the models suggest the outbreaks may be nearing extinction in both Guangdong and Zhejiang; however, the sub-epidemic model predictions also include the potential for further sustained transmission, particularly in Zhejiang. Our 10-day forecasts across the three models predict an additional 65–81 cases (upper bounds: 169–507) in Guangdong and an additional 44–354 (upper bounds: 141–875) cases in Zhejiang by February 23, 2020. In the best-case scenario, current data suggest that transmission in both provinces is slowing down.
FULL TEXT LINK
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020596